Altcoin Season Begins: Bitcoin Surpasses $100K, Market Eyes Altcoin Rallies

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Altcoin Season Begins: Bitcoin Surpasses $100K, Market Eyes Altcoin...

Nikolaj Krastev
13 May, 2025, 09:00
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Altcoin Season: The First Phase Begins as Bitcoin Surpasses $100K

The altcoin market has been on fire this May, fueled by Bitcoin’s (BTC) surge above $100K. As the risk-on sentiment strengthens, analytics firm Swissblock predicts that we are entering the first phase of the altcoin season, similar to trends observed in February and November 2024.

Momentum Building for Altcoins

The increasing momentum in the altcoin market is notable. According to Swissblock, the chart indicates a rising altcoin impulse (shown in blue), which signals that altcoins could be gearing up for another run. This pattern was seen during the February and November rallies in 2024, confirming the rising altcoin enthusiasm.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen also shares this outlook, highlighting that more altcoins are currently trading above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is traditionally a bullish signal for the market.

Key Market Indicators for Altcoin Season

KriptoNovini.bg has also been monitoring some critical altcoin season indicators, and several signs point to budding altcoin strength:

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D):
- Bitcoin dominance reached a cycle high of 65.3% in early May, which slowed the broader altcoin sector’s recovery in April.
- However, following Bitcoin's rise above $100K, its dominance dropped by 4%, now sitting at 62%, which is seen as a positive development for altcoins.
Tether (USDT) Dominance:
- USDT dominance, a proxy for stablecoin activity, fell from 6% to 4.5% in the past three weeks. This suggests that capital is rotating out of stablecoins and into altcoins, fueling further altcoin market growth.
Altcoin Market Capitalization:
- Excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, the altcoin market cap has surged from $600 billion to over $900 billion recently, signaling significant capital inflows into the altcoin sector.

Altcoin Rotation Begins as Volume Surges — But Alt Season Still Far Off

This trend echoes the signals from last November’s altcoin pump, where a sharp drop in BTC and USDT dominance marked the start of the altcoin rally.

Altcoin Season Index (ASI): Still in Bitcoin's Territory

Despite the growing altcoin momentum, the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) is currently sitting at 27, indicating that we are still in a Bitcoin season. The ASI tracks the performance of Bitcoin against altcoins over the past 90 days, so it's considered a lagging indicator.

However, it's important to note that some altcoins have already started outperforming Bitcoin. For instance, Monero (XMR), Sui (SUI), Bittensor (TAO), and Tron (TRX) have all outpaced Bitcoin in the same period, signaling potential leaders in the altcoin space.

The Road Ahead: Focus on Strong Fundamentals

As altcoin season momentum increases, it's important to recognize that not all altcoins will perform equally. For investors, focusing on sub-sector leaders with strong fundamentals could improve positioning during this period of capital rotation.

In summary, while the altcoin season is heating up, Bitcoin’s dominance still plays a critical role in shaping the overall market trend. With Tether’s declining dominance and increasing altcoin market cap, there’s reason to be optimistic about the upcoming altcoin rallies, but cautious positioning remains key as the trend evolves.