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Bitcoin Bear Market Confirmed? Bitwise and CryptoQuant Analysts Predict BTC Bottom Timeline

Bitcoin Bear Market...
Bitcoin Bear Market Confirmed? Bitwise and CryptoQuant Analysts...

Bitcoin Bear Market Confirmed? Analysts Point to $70,000–$56,000 as Potential Bottoms While Liquidity Builds

The cryptocurrency market has entered what many now call a full-blown bear phase, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping sharply below $100,000 and struggling to reclaim key technical levels. After testing lows near $74,700 over the weekend and briefly dipping to $72,000 on Tuesday, February 3, 2026, BTC has stabilized around $77,000–$78,000, but conviction remains weak.

Prominent voices in the industry are increasingly aligning on the view that the crypto winter is underway — and has been for months.

Matt Hougan (Bitwise CIO): "We’ve Been in Crypto Winter Since January 2025"

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, one of the largest digital asset managers, stated bluntly:

“We have been in a crypto winter since January 2025. Chances are, we’re closer to the end than the beginning. We are in a full-blown crypto winter.”

Hougan estimates that $75 billion in demand from Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries (notably Strategy) has been the primary force preventing a far steeper collapse. Without this institutional bid, he believes Bitcoin would have already fallen 60% from its highs. He notes that historical bear markets typically last around 13 months, but he doubts the current one will extend all the way to November 2026.

Julio Moreno (CryptoQuant): Bear Market Began November 2025 – Bottom in Q3 2026

CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno offers a slightly different timeline but agrees the bear phase is real:

“The Bitcoin bear market started in November 2025, as suggested by on-chain and market data, and the timing has implications for when it will end. My current expectation is Q3 2026.”

Moreno points to Bitcoin’s decisive break below $100,000 and the 50-week EMA (a long-term bull market support line) in November as the clear inflection point. His Q3 2026 bottom projection aligns with historical cycle lengths and current on-chain deterioration.

How Low Could Bitcoin Go? $70,000–$56,000 Range in Focus

Ethereum Death Cross Confirmed: ETH Plunges 8% Below $3,000, Bear Market Bottom at $2,400?

Analysts have converged on a plausible bottoming zone:

A 46% supply now in loss reinforces that pain is widespread, but equilibrium between profit/loss holders (a classic bottom signal) has not yet been reached.

Contrasting Views: Tom Lee Sees Rebound Setup

Not all voices are bearish. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee remains constructive, arguing that “all pieces” are in place for a rebound — citing oversold conditions, whale accumulation (e.g., Strategy and others adding positions), and building stablecoin liquidity as underappreciated bullish factors.

What Could Reverse the Trend?

Potential catalysts include:

Bottom Line

The consensus among leading analysts is clear: Bitcoin is in a bear market that likely began in late 2025, with $70,000 (2021 peak) and $56,000–$58,000 (200-week MA/realized price) as realistic downside targets if selling pressure continues. While institutional accumulation and record stablecoin liquidity provide underlying support, short-term sentiment remains deeply fearful, and technical damage is significant.

The market is in a classic capitulation vs. liquidity standoff. A true bottom will likely require exhaustion selling, sentiment extremes, and a structural reclaim of key levels — potentially not until mid-to-late 2026. Until then, volatility stays elevated, downside risks outweigh near-term upside, and defensive positioning remains prudent.

Traders should monitor $75,000 closely: a hold preserves the higher-low structure, while a break lower opens the path toward deeper targets. The next few weeks will be pivotal in determining whether this is a healthy correction or the start of a more prolonged winter.

Svetlana Petkova publication: "Bitcoin Bear Market Confirmed? Bitwise and CryptoQuant Analysts Predict BTC Bottom Timeline" was written for 24crypto.news

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