Bitcoin Eyes $120K Target If 4H MA50 Breakout Confirms Bullish Arc Pattern

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Bitcoin Eyes $120K Target If 4H MA50 Breakout Confirms Bullish Arc...

Srebrin Petrov
3 June, 2025, 11:01
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Bitcoin Rebounds Near 4H MA200, Eyes Potential Breakout Above $120K

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) showed signs of technical resilience over the weekend, rebounding strongly after testing its 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart (4H MA200)—a dynamic support level that has been intact since April 16.

On Saturday, the price nearly touched the 4H MA200, triggering a modest bullish reaction. However, the move remains capped below the 4H MA50, which is now acting as a key short-term resistance level.

4H RSI Hits Oversold for First Time Since April 7

Adding fuel to a potential short-term recovery is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4H timeframe, which briefly dipped to the oversold threshold of 30.00. This marks the first oversold signal on the 4H RSI since Bitcoin’s local bottom on April 7, which preceded a strong rally.

This technical signal aligns with past market behavior, often serving as a precursor to sharp upward reversals in Bitcoin's short-term trajectory.

Arc Pattern Signals Rebound Potential

From a pattern recognition perspective, Bitcoin has carved out a distinct blue Arc formation over the past three weeks. This structure mirrors previous peak formations and pullbacks observed since the early-April bottom, reinforcing the possibility of another bullish impulse—provided resistance levels are cleared.

Key Resistance: 4H MA50 Must Break for Confirmation

While the initial bounce near the 4H MA200 is promising, analysts are watching closely for a decisive breakout above the 4H MA50. This moving average has now turned into a short-term ceiling, capping price action and compressing momentum.

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A confirmed break above this level would signal a bullish continuation and potentially unlock the next upward target.

Next Target: $120K Based on Minimum Bullish Projection

If the 4H MA200 continues to hold as support, and the 4H MA50 is successfully breached, Bitcoin could be poised for a minimum short-term gain of +16.06%—matching the weakest rally within the current long-term bullish leg.

This would place Bitcoin's short-term upside target at approximately $120,000, representing a critical psychological and technical milestone.

Technical Projection:

Support: 4H MA200 (~$103,000–$104,000 zone)

Resistance: 4H MA50 (~$105,500)

Breakout Target: ~$120,000

Momentum Indicator: RSI recovering from oversold at 30.00

Conclusion: Bulls Need a Confirmed MA50 Break

Bitcoin's technical structure suggests bullish potential is building, but confirmation hinges on a decisive breakout above the 4H MA50. Should this occur, the market could rally toward the $120K level—a move consistent with prior performance in this bullish leg.

For now, traders should monitor:

Continued support at the 4H MA200
RSI recovery signals
Volume confirmation on any upward breakout

The broader sentiment remains cautiously bullish as BTC consolidates above the $104,000 zone, with market participants eyeing the $120K breakout scenario in the coming sessions.