Bitcoin Eyes Major Breakout as Analysts Predict $138K–$190K Surge by 2026

Bitcoin Poised for Major Breakout as Analysts Forecast Bullish Path to $190K

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways in recent sessions, coiling just beneath a major resistance trendline on the daily chart. The cryptocurrency's current consolidation phase is fueling anticipation of a potential breakout, which could define the next leg of Bitcoin’s market cycle.

Despite recent stagnation, top analysts suggest that the current price action is merely the calm before the storm. Historical patterns, combined with powerful macroeconomic catalysts and on-chain data, point to a high-probability scenario of upward expansion—with targets ranging from $138,000 to as high as $190,000 within the next 12 months.

Sideways Action Creating Breakout Tension

Over the past week, Bitcoin has hovered just below a critical downtrend resistance line, tested multiple times since June. This level has acted as a psychological barrier and remains one of the most-watched technical zones on BTC’s daily chart.

• Current Support Range: $104,000–$106,000

• Immediate Resistance: $110,000–$111,000

• Breakout Confirmation Level: Above $111,700

The compression near resistance is forming a classic bullish continuation pattern, often seen in strong uptrending markets before breakout rallies.

Analyst Ted Pillows Draws Parallels with 2020’s Spending Boom

One of the key macro drivers of Bitcoin’s past bull runs has been government stimulus and fiscal expansion. In 2020, a massive U.S. government spending package sent BTC skyrocketing to record highs.

Now, in mid-2025, another even larger spending bill is working its way through Congress. Analyst Ted Pillows noted in a recent X (formerly Twitter) post that this could “create the same inflation hedge narrative that helped ignite the 2020–2021 Bitcoin bull run.”

If history rhymes, this round of fiscal stimulus could act as a catalyst for renewed Bitcoin demand, particularly among institutional investors looking for hard assets in times of monetary debasement.

CryptoQuant: On-Chain Data Points to $87K–$99K Range Short Term

In an interview this week, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, shared his short- and long-term outlook for BTC.

Moreno’s Key Takeaways:

• Short-Term Range (2–3 months): $87,000–$99,000

• Resistance Cap for Now: $138,000

• Cycle Top Potential (2025–2026): ~$190,000

Moreno emphasized the importance of the realized price metric—an on-chain indicator that tracks the average price at which all coins in circulation were last moved. In bull markets, prices often pull back toward the realized price before launching the next leg up.

However, he noted that once momentum returns, there’s significant room for growth, with the top of the current cycle potentially extending into mid-to-late 2026.

What Is Realized Price and Why It Matters?

The realized price helps analysts and investors determine the average cost basis of the market participants. When Bitcoin trades significantly above this level, it can suggest euphoria or overextension. Conversely, when it pulls back toward the realized price during a bull market, it’s often seen as a healthy correction or reaccumulation phase.

With current realized price data pointing to a zone between $87,000–$99,000, the recent sideways action could represent a key accumulation opportunity, especially if fundamentals remain intact.

What’s Needed for a Rally to $138K?

For Bitcoin to breach the $138,000 resistance cap, a few market conditions need to align:

1. Stronger Demand Surge: On-chain activity must reflect growing wallet inflows, increasing active addresses, and rising exchange outflows—all signs of buyer confidence.

2. Institutional Re-entry: Renewed interest from institutions (via ETFs, hedge funds, or corporate treasuries) could provide the needed capital to break above key levels.

3. Macro Environment: If inflation rises or fiat devalues further due to the 2025 spending bill, Bitcoin’s role as a hedge asset could attract safe-haven capital.

Why Q4 2025 Could Be Crucial

Historically, Q4 is Bitcoin’s best-performing quarter in bull markets. From 2013 to 2021, the final quarter of the year produced some of Bitcoin’s largest rallies, fueled by end-of-year positioning, tax strategies, and holiday market activity.

Julio Moreno noted that the current cycle’s structure points to a strong close for 2025, with a possible final leg into Q2 or Q3 2026, culminating in the $190,000 cycle top.

️ Risks to Watch

While the overall sentiment is bullish, analysts caution that the market is still sensitive to external shocks:

• Regulatory headlines around ETFs, stablecoins, or crypto taxation

• Global macro events, such as interest rate changes or geopolitical tensions

• Weakened demand and decreasing whale accumulation in on-chain data

Should Bitcoin fail to hold support above $99,000, a deeper retracement to $87,000 remains possible, aligning with Julio Moreno’s lower band scenario.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

ZoneLevel (USD)Comment

Major Support	$87,000 – $99,000	Realized price range
Immediate Resistance	$110,000 – $111,700	Current breakout test zone
Mid-Term Resistance	$138,000	On-chain resistance cap
Cycle Target	$190,000	Potential top by late 2026

Conclusion: Will Bitcoin Break Free?

Bitcoin’s consolidation beneath resistance may seem uneventful, but history shows that sideways moves often precede explosive breakouts. With powerful macroeconomic catalysts in play—including a new spending bill and rising institutional support—Bitcoin may be gearing up for its next major run.

While short-term pullbacks toward $99K remain possible, analysts remain optimistic that the cryptocurrency’s next major targets lie between $138,000 and $190,000.

As the market awaits a decisive move, investors and traders would be wise to watch on-chain flows, macro policy news, and technical breakout confirmations.

Georgi Shopov publication: "Bitcoin Eyes Major Breakout as Analysts Predict $138K–$190K Surge by 2026" was written for 24crypto.news

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