Bitcoin Forms Bullish Pattern After Iran Strike Dip

Bitcoin Recovers From Geopolitical Sell-Off, Forms Bull Flag: Analysts Eye $111,900 as Next Price Target

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) faced a wave of selling pressure yesterday following reports of a U.S. military strike in Iran, a development that rattled global markets and triggered a temporary plunge in risk assets. However, in a classic show of resilience, Bitcoin quickly recovered much of its losses in the latter part of the day—and that recovery is extending into today's Asian and early European sessions.

Market participants are now closely watching what appears to be the formation of a bullish technical structure, potentially setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next major move. With historical patterns repeating and a significant moving average crossover forming, many analysts are turning their sights to a medium-term target of $111,900.

Geopolitical Fears Trigger Sell-Off, But Recovery Is Underway

The initial decline came as markets absorbed news of heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. airstrike in Iran and the growing fear of retaliation. This uncertainty sparked a sell-off in both equities and cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin plunging below its 50-day Moving Average (MA50)—a psychologically and technically important level.

However, Bitcoin quickly rebounded, forming a Lower Low on the daily chart and now regaining momentum. The rebound appears to be gaining strength, suggesting that investor sentiment remains fundamentally bullish despite the news-driven volatility.

Channel Down Formation Mirrors Late 2024 Price Action

Perhaps the most notable development on the charts is the emergence of a Channel Down pattern, which bears a striking resemblance to the one formed between December 17, 2024, and January 13, 2025. In both instances:

Price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trendline).
A Lower Low was formed.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 1D chart dropped to the 41.20 level, which previously acted as a support level and precursor to a major rebound.

Back in January 2025, this structure initiated a rally that tested the All-Time High (ATH) resistance, eventually leading to a significant breakout. If history repeats—or even rhymes—traders may see another attempt to challenge those ATH levels in the near future.

Bull Flag in the Middle of a Bull Cycle Leg?

Zooming out, this Channel Down pattern may not be a bearish reversal but rather a Bull Flag formation—a common continuation pattern that appears during strong uptrends. Given that the current uptrend began relatively recently on April 7, 2025, the bull cycle leg may still be in its early-to-mid stages.

Bull Flags typically form after an impulsive rally and represent a period of consolidation before the next leg higher. If confirmed, this structure aligns with a textbook bullish continuation scenario.

MA100/MA200 Bullish Crossover Confirmed Today

Adding more credibility to the bullish thesis is the formation of a 1D MA100/200 Golden Cross—the first since November 13, 2024. A Golden Cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average (in this case, the 100-day MA) crosses above a longer-term one (the 200-day MA), and is widely viewed as a powerful long-term buy signal.

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Historically, Golden Crosses on higher time frames tend to precede sustained uptrends, especially when supported by positive macro narratives and improving investor sentiment.

Medium-Term Price Target: $111,900

With all the above factors aligning, the medium-term technical target of $111,900 is now a focus point for many traders and analysts. This level is based on:

The projected top of the Bull Flag structure.
Fibonacci extension levels from the April 7 rally.
Historical resistance zones that coincide with previous failed breakout attempts.

It’s important to note, however, that confirmation requires a weekly (1W) candle close above the current ATH resistance. Until that breakout is firmly in place, $111,900 remains a target—not a guarantee.

Key Technical Indicators and Patterns to Watch

IndicatorCurrent Signal

1D MA50	Broken below, then reclaimed
RSI (1D)	Bouncing from 41.20 support
Channel Down Pattern	Similar to Dec 2024 – Jan 2025
MA100/200 Cross	Golden Cross formed
Support Levels	$98,000 / $100,000
Resistance Levels	$105,000 / $111,900
Volume	Increasing on recovery

These indicators suggest strong technical symmetry with past bullish setups, especially those in late 2024 and early 2025.

What Could Invalidate the Bullish Setup?

While the bullish case is compelling, it’s essential to account for potential invalidation scenarios:

Failure to hold above $100,000 support – A decisive break and daily close below $98,000 could signal broader weakness.
Low volume breakout – A move higher without meaningful trading volume could lead to false breakouts.
Escalating geopolitical conflict – Any unexpected escalation in the Middle East could renew risk-off sentiment.

Market Sentiment and Macro Conditions

Despite the ongoing geopolitical stress, the broader macro backdrop for Bitcoin remains favorable:

ETF inflows continue as institutional interest rises.
The post-halving supply reduction is still tightening market dynamics.
Central banks globally are leaning dovish, which supports risk assets like Bitcoin.

With liquidity flowing back into crypto markets and retail interest surging again, the path to $111,900 may be more attainable than many assume—especially if the bullish technical patterns are confirmed in the coming sessions.

Conclusion: Is $111,900 in Sight?

Based on current chart patterns, technical indicators, and historical parallels, Bitcoin’s recent dip looks less like a trend reversal and more like a classic Bull Flag consolidation. The Channel Down formation, RSI bounce, and Golden Cross confirmation collectively point toward a medium-term rally targeting $111,900—as long as price continues to respect key support levels and global market conditions remain stable.

So is $111,900 a realistic short-term target? All signs suggest it could be—but confirmation remains key. Watch for a weekly close above the ATH to validate the next leg higher.