Bitcoin Hits $65,000 Lows, But JPMorgan Flags a Massive Long-Term Move to $266,000

Bitcoin Slides to $65,000 Amid Prolonged Sell-Off, But JPMorgan Sees Long-Term Upside to $266,000

Bitcoin (BTC) continues its gradual but relentless decline, now trading around $65,000 as of February 5, 2026. The asset has drifted lower from mid-January levels near $75,000, passing through $72,000, $70,000, $68,000, and now testing $65,000—marking fresh 15-month lows in some sessions.

This slow bleed feels particularly unnerving: no dramatic crash event, no single headline trigger, just persistent fading confidence and selling pressure. Unlike past downturns tied to FTX, Luna, or other clear catalysts, the current weakness stems from broader risk-off sentiment, negative ETF flows, and waning retail conviction.

Analysts have grown more vocal about downside risks. Some warn of a breach below $60,000, while others, including voices from Zacks Investment Research, outline scenarios where BTC could revisit $40,000 if macro conditions deteriorate further and risk appetite stays suppressed. Even traditional safe havens like gold and silver have shown volatility, adding to the uncertainty.

JPMorgan's Contrarian Bullish Call Stands Out

Against this backdrop, JPMorgan's latest analysis delivers a striking long-term perspective. In a report released this week, analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argue that Bitcoin has become more attractive than gold on a volatility-adjusted basis, despite the ongoing drawdown.

The key metric: the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has dropped to around 1.5—a record low. This convergence means Bitcoin's price swings are no longer dramatically higher than gold's, flipping a long-standing narrative.

The analysts note that gold's strong outperformance since October 2025, combined with rising gold volatility, has made Bitcoin appear undervalued relative to the precious metal over extended horizons.

Using this framework, JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin's market cap would need to expand significantly—to imply a price near $266,000—to match the roughly $8 trillion in private-sector gold investment (excluding central bank holdings). This target reflects Bitcoin capturing comparable allocation if viewed as a similar macro hedge.

The bank stresses this $266,000 figure is unrealistic for the current year. It represents a theoretical long-term equilibrium once negative sentiment reverses and Bitcoin regains perception as a credible alternative in extreme economic scenarios.

Short-Term Realities Remain Challenging

JPMorgan acknowledges the immediate pain. Bitcoin now trades well below its estimated production cost of around $87,000—a level that historically provided a soft floor. Prolonged sub-cost trading could force unprofitable miners to exit, potentially lowering network costs and exerting further downward pressure.

That said, the bank highlights mitigating factors: liquidations in futures markets have stayed relatively contained compared to the October 2025 wipeout, and institutional selling via CME has not escalated aggressively. Deleveraging appears measured rather than panic-driven.

JPMorgan's Evolving Bitcoin Outlook Over Time

This marks a progressive shift in the bank's stance:

• January 2024 — Fair value closer to $45,000, cautioning post-ETF hype could fade.
• June 2024 — Viewed as high-beta risk asset, range-bound without major adoption acceleration.
• November 2024 — Introduced gold-comparison, suggesting $150,000+ potential over years.
• October 2025 — Upside case of $165,000–$170,000 in 6–12 months via volatility dynamics.
• Late November 2025 — Structural upside to $240,000 as macro hedge.
• February 2026 — Raised theoretical long-term target to $266,000 on volatility-adjusted gold equivalence.

What This Means for Investors

The contrast is stark: near-term bearish pressure meets a bold institutional long-term thesis anchored in Bitcoin's evolving role versus gold. JPMorgan's gold outlook has also risen sharply—to $8,000–$8,500 per ounce—driven by structural demand, underscoring the asset class convergence narrative.

While the slow grind lower tests patience and erodes short-term confidence, the bank's framework highlights mathematical upside if Bitcoin matures as a volatility-competitive store of value. Recovery would likely require stabilizing macro conditions, renewed inflows, or exhaustion of current selling.

For now, Bitcoin remains in a precarious spot—vulnerable to further downside probes toward $60,000 or below—yet the JPMorgan view serves as a reminder that major institutions see potential far beyond today's lows once sentiment turns. The road may stay bumpy, but the long-term case tied to gold dynamics adds a layer of structural optimism amid the pain.

Nikolaj Krastev publication: "Bitcoin Hits $65,000 Lows, But JPMorgan Flags a Massive Long-Term Move to $266,000" was written for 24crypto.news

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