Bitcoin Holds Above MVRV Mid-Cycle Support Level

Bitcoin Holds Strong Above Key Mid-Cycle Support: Bullish Signals Persist Despite Weak On-Chain Activity

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience as it maintains its position above the critical 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. This key technical level has historically served as a reliable mid-cycle support, offering investors confidence in the long-term bullish trend.

The bounce above this threshold, now entering its twelfth day, has drawn increased attention from traders and analysts alike. It’s not just a technical phenomenon—it’s a sentiment barometer that could define the coming weeks in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Bitcoin’s MVRV > SMA365: A Bullish Signal with Historical Weight

Maintaining a level above the 365-day SMA on the MVRV Ratio is more than a chart pattern. It’s a psychological anchor for market participants. Historically, when Bitcoin holds above this line, it often enters a phase of sustained bullish accumulation—marking the mid-point between early-cycle accumulation and late-cycle exuberance.

With BTC currently trading above $108,000, this setup is signaling long-term investor confidence, assuming the ‘MVRV > SMA365’ condition remains valid. However, sentiment alone won’t sustain the rally. Strong price action must be accompanied by robust on-chain metrics to confirm the market's conviction.

Profit-Taking Without Panic: A Healthy Mid-Cycle Trait

Recent data from CryptoQuant indicates that Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) increased by 2.27%, equating to approximately $293 million in net profits realized by participants. This reflects a measured round of profit-taking, not indicative of panic selling.

This behavior is characteristic of mid-cycle dynamics—investors are gradually securing gains while maintaining a foothold in the market. The lack of significant sell pressure shows that bulls remain in control, and confidence in future gains is largely intact.

Key Insight: Moderate profit-taking during an uptrend signals smart money behavior, not fear-driven exits.

On-Chain Activity Drops: Red Flag or Healthy Reset?

Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics, however, tell a more nuanced story.

According to Santiment, Transaction Count has declined to 85.9K, and Network Growth has slipped to 65.8K—both levels near monthly lows. These metrics reflect a drop in new user participation and reduced blockchain activity, which could raise eyebrows among market observers.

However, this lull in activity may also signal the clearing of speculative excess from the market. A temporary pullback in network usage doesn’t necessarily indicate a reversal—it could mark a healthy consolidation phase.

Professional Take: Declining activity should be watched closely, but as long as price holds and no mass exodus occurs, this can serve as a cooling-off period that strengthens long-term structure.

Social Dominance Surges—A Double-Edged Sword

Sentiment in the crypto space is often fueled by social chatter—and Bitcoin is back in the spotlight.

BTC’s Social Dominance recently spiked to 34.92%, the highest level of 2025 so far. While this surge indicates growing market attention and media coverage, it has historically been a contrarian indicator when not supported by fundamental metrics.

Bitcoin Holds Key Support at Bull Flag Apex, Eyes $150K–$168.5K Target This Cycle

Such spikes often precede local tops, as speculative interest rises without a corresponding increase in network participation or volume. While attention helps drive awareness and inflows, it also heightens volatility and makes the asset more vulnerable to sharp corrections.

Cautionary Note: Social buzz alone isn't bullish. Without solid on-chain support, such spikes can foreshadow short-term pullbacks.

Technical Outlook: EMAs and RSI Suggest Cautious Optimism

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin’s short-term setup remains structurally sound.

BTC is trading above both the 9-day and 21-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)—key levels that often act as dynamic support in trending markets.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 55, indicating mild bullish momentum, but not overbought conditions.

To solidify a breakout, BTC needs to surpass $110,000 decisively and see RSI climb above 60. Until that happens, sideways movement is the most likely path.

Pro Outlook: As long as BTC holds above its EMAs, bulls have a base to launch the next rally. The current setup favors accumulation rather than distribution.

Mid-Cycle or Momentum Loss? Key Metrics to Watch

The bigger question remains: Can BTC sustain its bullish bias amid weakening on-chain fundamentals?

Let’s break down the major bullish and bearish indicators:

Bullish Signals:

MVRV Ratio > 365-day SMA: Mid-cycle bullish indicator
Price above 9-day and 21-day EMAs: Structural strength
NRPL growth: Healthy profit-taking, not panic
Price stability despite weak activity: Resilience in trend

Bearish Risks:

Falling Transaction Count and Network Growth: Reduced organic usage
Spike in Social Dominance: Possible speculative overheating
RSI below key breakout threshold (60): Fragile momentum

What Needs to Happen for Bitcoin to Break Higher?

To maintain and accelerate its bullish trend, Bitcoin must see improvements across both on-chain activity and market engagement. Key developments that could support the next leg up include:

Revival in transaction volume and new user growth
Institutional inflows or ETF-related announcements
A clean break above $110K with volume confirmation
RSI climbing above 60 and holding

Until these factors align, Bitcoin may remain range-bound, trading between strong support zones and psychological resistance levels.

Bottom Line: Bitcoin is Bullish—But Not Invincible

In summary, Bitcoin’s current market structure remains firmly bullish, supported by technical indicators like the MVRV Ratio, EMAs, and NRPL. Despite weakening on-chain activity and signs of speculative excess, price action has been remarkably stable—a testament to long-term confidence in the asset.

However, the disconnection between adoption metrics and valuation suggests that Bitcoin is entering a fragile phase. A breakout is possible, but only if accompanied by renewed participation, higher volume, and stronger conviction from both retail and institutional players.

Investor Insight: Now is the time for strategic positioning, not blind speculation. Watch key technical and on-chain metrics closely—and be prepared for volatility in either direction.

Final Thoughts

As we move deeper into 2025, Bitcoin remains at a critical inflection point. The foundations are there for continued bullish momentum, but the lack of supporting on-chain engagement is a crucial missing piece. Traders and investors should approach the current market with measured optimism, staying alert for signs of both breakout potential and trend exhaustion.

With strong technical levels holding firm, Bitcoin is still in the driver's seat—but the road ahead will demand patience, discipline, and close attention to evolving metrics.