Bitcoin LMACD Bearish Cross Alert: Has BTC's $113K Peak Confirmed the Cycle Top? The Path to $60,000 in 2026

Bitcoin MACD Bearish Cross Alert: Analyzing Potential Cycle Tops and Price Drops in Late 2025

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently teetering on the edge of a significant technical development, with signs pointing toward a potential Logarithmic Moving Average Convergence Divergence (LMACD) bearish cross on the monthly (1M) timeframe. As of October 21, 2025, the cryptocurrency trades around $107,800, down from its recent all-time high of approximately $113,156 reached just days earlier on October 15. This setup requires the October monthly candle to close for full confirmation, but early indicators are raising alarms among traders and investors. In this analysis, we'll dive into what this could mean for Bitcoin's trajectory, drawing on historical patterns while considering the evolving market landscape.

Understanding the LMACD Bearish Cross: A Technical Red Flag

The LMACD is a specialized version of the traditional MACD indicator, adjusted for logarithmic scaling to better capture the exponential growth patterns often seen in assets like Bitcoin. It measures the difference between two exponential moving averages (typically 12-period and 26-period) and plots a signal line (9-period EMA) to identify momentum shifts. A bearish cross occurs when the MACD line dips below the signal line, signaling weakening upward momentum and potential downward pressure.

On the monthly chart, this cross is particularly noteworthy because it has historically aligned with major turning points in Bitcoin's four-year halving cycles. These cycles, driven by Bitcoin's programmed supply halvings every four years, have structured the asset's boom-and-bust phases since its inception. Right now, the LMACD appears to be reversing just as Bitcoin tests its multi-year lower highs trendline—a line that has capped previous cycle tops. If confirmed, this could mark a pivotal shift from the bullish run that pushed prices to new heights earlier this month.

To put it in perspective, Bitcoin's price action in 2025 has been volatile yet upward-trending overall, with institutional inflows and broader adoption fueling gains. However, the looming cross suggests caution, as it could invalidate recent optimism if the monthly close is negative.

Historical Context: When Bearish Crosses Have Signaled Disaster

Looking back at Bitcoin's history provides crucial insights into the implications of an LMACD bearish cross on the monthly timeframe. This indicator hasn't triggered frequently, but when it has, the results have been dramatic, often coinciding with the end of bull markets and the onset of prolonged bear phases.

2014 Cycle: The bearish cross formed in January 2014, just three months after the cycle top in late 2013. Bitcoin plummeted from around $1,000 to under $200 by early 2015, representing a drawdown of over 85%. This period was marked by regulatory uncertainties and the infamous Mt. Gox collapse, amplifying the downside.
2018 Cycle: In February 2018, four months into the bear market following the December 2017 peak near $20,000, the cross confirmed the downtrend. Prices crashed to about $3,200 by December 2018—a staggering 84% decline. Factors like ICO hype bursting and global economic jitters contributed to the severity.
2021 Cycle: More recently, the August 2021 cross occurred three months before the November 2021 all-time high around $69,000. This cycle was unique with a near-double top (April and November 2021), where the LMACD rejected the lower highs trendline early on. The subsequent bear market saw Bitcoin drop to roughly $15,500 in late 2022, a 77% loss from the peak.

These instances highlight a pattern: the bearish cross doesn't always pinpoint the exact top but reliably signals the transition to a bear cycle. In each case, it preceded or confirmed multi-month declines, with average losses exceeding 80%. The 2021 cycle was the "softest" at -77%, yet it still tested long-term supports like the monthly 50-period moving average (MA50).

Is 2025 Marking a Cycle Top? Evaluating Scenarios

Given Bitcoin's four-year cycle pattern, 2025 aligns with expectations for a potential peak, following the 2024 halving event in April. The recent surge to $113,156 fits this narrative, but the emerging LMACD signals warrant scrutiny. Historically, cycle tops have occurred 12-18 months post-halving, placing us squarely in that window.

Best-Case Scenario: Extended Bull Run

In the most optimistic outlook, Bitcoin could shake off the bearish cross and extend its rally for another few months. This might mirror the 2021 anomaly, where the cross preceded the final top by three months. Supportive factors could include:

Renewed interest rate cuts by major central banks, easing liquidity conditions.
Positive geopolitical developments, such as trade agreements or reduced tensions in key regions.
Further mainstream adoption, like additional corporate treasury allocations or regulatory approvals for new crypto products.

If October closes green or with minimal losses, the LMACD might fail to confirm the cross, allowing Bitcoin to retest or exceed its recent high. Targets could reach $120,000-$150,000, driven by momentum and FOMO (fear of missing out) among retail investors.

Worst-Case Scenario: Bear Cycle Confirmation

Conversely, if the October candle closes in the red—currently a possibility with prices down about 3% intraday on October 21—the bearish cross would gain credence. This would suggest the $113,156 high was the cycle top, ushering in a new bear phase. Historical precedents indicate this is the more probable outcome based on past cycles, especially with the LMACD reversing near its lower highs trendline.

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In this setup, downside momentum could accelerate, with initial supports at $100,000 (psychological level) and $90,000 (recent consolidation zone). Broader market correlations, such as with equities amid potential economic slowdowns, could exacerbate the decline.

How Low Could Bitcoin Go? Projecting Potential Bottoms

If a bear cycle is underway, historical drawdowns provide a roadmap for potential lows. Bitcoin has never experienced a bear market without significant corrections, and this cycle's maturity suggests similar risks.

Average Historical Decline: Over 80% from cycle highs. From $113,156, this implies a bottom around $22,000-$25,000, though this seems extreme given maturing market dynamics.
Softest Cycle Reference (2021-2022): A -77% drop would target approximately $26,000. However, the 2021 bottom pierced below the monthly MA50, unlike earlier cycles that respected it as support.
Best-Case Bottom: If the MA50 holds as in 2014 and 2018, expect a floor around $60,000-$65,000. This level aligns with the 2024 post-halving base and could attract dip-buyers.
Worst-Case Extension: In a prolonged bear, factoring in external shocks like recession or regulatory crackdowns, prices could dip to $30,000 or lower—a -73% to -78% retrace. This would test the 2022 lows but likely find strong buying interest from institutions.

It's worth noting that each cycle's bottom has been higher than the previous one's, reflecting Bitcoin's long-term uptrend. The 2015 low was $200, 2018 at $3,200, and 2022 at $15,500. A 2025-2026 bottom above $20,000 would continue this pattern.

Factors Influencing the Depth of Any Pullback

Several elements could mitigate or amplify the downside:

Volatility Metrics: Current implied volatility is elevated but not at panic levels seen in past crashes.
On-Chain Data: Accumulation trends show whales (large holders) buying dips, with addresses holding over 1,000 BTC increasing in recent weeks.
Market Sentiment: Retail participation remains high, but overleveraged positions could trigger liquidations, accelerating falls.
External Risks: Geopolitical events, such as elections or conflicts, could sway sentiment negatively.

Traders should monitor key levels: a break below $100,000 might confirm bearish momentum, while a rebound above $110,000 could invalidate the cross.

The Positive Outlook: Why This Cycle Could Be Different

Despite the ominous technicals, Bitcoin's fundamentals have strengthened dramatically with each cycle, potentially cushioning any downturn. This isn't the Wild West of 2014; the ecosystem is more mature and integrated into global finance.

Institutional adoption has surged, with companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla holding billions in Bitcoin on their balance sheets. National treasuries, including those of El Salvador and potentially others, add sovereign backing. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, led by giants like BlackRock, has revolutionized access, bringing in trillions in potential capital. These products have seen record inflows, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone managing assets worth tens of billions.

Such heavyweights are unlikely to let their flagship products crater by 80% without intervention—think strategic buying or advocacy for favorable policies. Moreover, the 2024 halving reduced supply issuance to 3.125 BTC per block, tightening scarcity amid growing demand from DeFi, NFTs, and payment networks.

Regulatory progress, including clearer frameworks in the EU and US, fosters confidence. Emerging use cases, like Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation or in remittances, bolster its utility. Even in a bear scenario, these factors could shorten the cycle's downside phase, leading to a quicker recovery.

Strategies for Investors Amid Uncertainty

Navigating this potential shift requires prudence:

Diversification: Allocate across crypto assets, stocks, and bonds to spread risk.
Risk Management: Use stop-losses and avoid leverage to prevent forced sales.
Long-Term Perspective: Bitcoin's historical returns post-bear markets have been explosive—over 10,000% from 2015 to 2017, for instance.
Monitoring Tools: Track on-chain metrics like exchange flows and hash rate for early signs of reversal.
Opportunistic Buying: View dips as entry points if fundamentals remain intact.

In summary, while the LMACD bearish cross poses a "nightmare" risk for Bitcoin in late 2025, it's not a guaranteed doom. The asset's resilience, backed by evolving fundamentals, suggests any correction could be shallower and shorter than historical norms. Investors should stay vigilant, balancing technical warnings with the bigger picture of Bitcoin's maturation. As the October candle nears its close in just over a week, the market's direction will become clearer, potentially setting the stage for the next chapter in crypto's volatile journey.

Georgi Shopov publication: "Bitcoin LMACD Bearish Cross Alert: Has BTC's $113K Peak Confirmed the Cycle Top? The Path to $60,000 in 2026" was written for 24crypto.news