Bitcoin MACD Flips Bearish: Monthly Signal Precedes $40,000 Correction, Warns Analyst

Bitcoin Faces Major Threat as Monthly MACD Flashes Bearish Signal — Analyst Warns of Potential Drop Toward $40,000

Bitcoin’s technical outlook has taken a sharp turn after a key long-term indicator flashed a bearish signal historically linked to severe price corrections. According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, the monthly MACD — one of the market’s most widely followed momentum indicators — has flipped bearish for the first time since previous major downturns.

Monthly MACD Turns Bearish: A Historically Dangerous Setup

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) tracks trend direction and momentum by comparing short- and long-term exponential moving averages. When the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it typically points to weakening bullish momentum and the potential start of a deeper downtrend.

Martinez shared a chart showing that this exact crossover has now appeared on the monthly BTC chart, marking a potentially significant shift in market structure.

Historically, this signal has not been mild. The last three major bearish MACD crossovers each preceded Bitcoin price crashes exceeding 60%. If the pattern repeats, the indicator “points to $40,000,” the analyst warned.

The latest crossover follows weeks of downward pressure across the crypto market, with Bitcoin unable to regain momentum after breaking below several key support zones.

Not the Only Bearish Signal: A Classic Death Cross Has Hit the Daily Chart

Concerns are deepening due to another major technical signal: a death cross between Bitcoin’s 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA). This occurs when the shorter-term trend drops below the longer-term trend — a common marker of trend reversal and bearish sentiment.

Martinez highlighted that although recent death crosses (2023–2024) marked local bottoms followed by recoveries, the pattern was very different in 2022, when the death cross triggered the start of a deeper bear market.

This time, Bitcoin has continued falling immediately after the crossover, raising the possibility that the signal could once again be marking the early stages of a more extended decline.

Market Sentiment Weakens as BTC Trades Below $90,000

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $88,800, down more than 4% over the past week. The sell-off has intensified as long-term momentum weakens and broader macro uncertainty fuels investor caution.

While many traders hope the bearish signals will be invalidated by a sharp recovery, current momentum suggests that the market may need to reset before a new leg up can begin.

Whether the monthly MACD repeats its history — or diverges for the first time in years — will likely determine the next major chapter in Bitcoin’s price cycle.

If the historical pattern holds, Bitcoin could face a deeper correction toward the $40,000 region before stabilizing.

Georgi Shopov publication: "Bitcoin MACD Flips Bearish: Monthly Signal Precedes $40,000 Correction, Warns Analyst" was written for 24crypto.news

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