Bitcoin Poised for Second Leg Higher After 4H Golden Cross and RSI Fractal Match

Bitcoin Eyes $117K as Golden Cross Forms and Bullish RSI Fractals Mirror May's Rally

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently showing strong technical potential after forming a Golden Cross on the 4-hour (4H) chart, signaling a continuation of its bullish momentum. The flagship cryptocurrency is now attempting to maintain the 50-period moving average (4H MA50) as short-term support, a critical level that could shape the next major price move.

Despite some early hesitation during the European session, market structure and momentum indicators suggest that BTC may be gearing up for another breakout leg, reminiscent of its powerful rally in May 2025.

Golden Cross Signals Momentum Shift

The recent Golden Cross—where the 4H 50-period moving average crosses above the 200-period moving average—is a classical bullish signal in technical analysis. It reflects a shift in trend, often following a period of consolidation, and is considered a reliable precursor to a larger price rally.

Currently, BTC is testing the MA50 as support, and while this level is under short-term pressure from selling, it has so far held above the average. If the support remains intact over the coming sessions, bulls may take it as confirmation to pile in further.

Echoes of May's Bullish Leg: Identical Price Structure Emerging

Technical analysts are pointing to striking similarities between the current price behavior and Bitcoin’s May 2025 rally—a period marked by a sustained uptrend and strong momentum.

In May, BTC surged +13.60% from its swing low before forming its first short-term top.
This time, BTC has rallied +12.60% from its recent low, showing nearly identical upside strength.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4H chart is also forming matching fractals to those seen in May, particularly during the mid-phase of that uptrend.
If history repeats—or even rhymes—the market could be preparing for a second leg higher, potentially toward the 1.5 Fibonacci extension around $117,000.

“We’re seeing the same structure play out almost identically. These types of technical patterns are rare in real-time,” said crypto market strategist Elena Martinez. “If the Golden Cross holds and RSI confirms, $117K is in play sooner than many expect.”

Fibonacci Extensions Point to $117K Short-Term Target

The Fibonacci extension tool is often used by traders to project profit targets during trending markets. In this case, a 1.5x extension of the current wave aligns precisely around the $117,000 mark—a level that now stands as a probable near-term price target.

This projection is based on:

The size of the initial impulse leg (from the May and current lows).
The symmetrical fractal and price behavior.
The continuation pattern following the Golden Cross.

If BTC breaks through the recent high at $110,000–$111,000, the path toward the 1.5 Fib extension becomes technically feasible. Such a breakout would also invalidate concerns of a false breakout or bull trap, which skeptics have voiced.

What the Indicators Are Saying

Bitcoin is approaching the Golden Cross, with its target near the $109,000 ATH — is $135,000 next?

Here’s a breakdown of the key technical indicators supporting the current bullish scenario:

IndicatorSignalCommentary

4H Golden Cross	Bullish	Signals uptrend resumption
4H RSI	Bullish	Fractal pattern matches May
Fibonacci Extension (1.5x)	Target $117K	Aligned with second leg of rally
Volume Profile	ï¸ Neutral	Needs to rise above $110K for full confirmation
Support Level (MA50)	Cautious	Under test, needs to hold for trend to continue

Macro Environment Favors Bullish Continuation

Beyond the charts, macro factors are also favoring Bitcoin:

Institutional buying remains strong via spot BTC ETFs, as reported by SoSoValue and CryptoQuant.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a dovish tone, keeping risk-on sentiment in play.
July 22 marks an important crypto regulatory update deadline in the U.S., which could act as a catalyst if the outcome is market-friendly.

All of these elements provide a conducive backdrop for a renewed Bitcoin push higher.

Risks to Watch For

Despite the bullish setup, traders should be aware of the potential pitfalls:

If BTC fails to hold the 4H MA50, it may revisit support near $105,000, invalidating the current setup.
The $110,000–$111,000 zone has been a stubborn resistance, and failure to break above it could result in a bull trap scenario.
Sudden macroeconomic news, such as regulatory actions or geopolitical disruptions, could also spark unexpected volatility.

Strategy for Traders and Investors

For short-term traders, this is a time to:

Monitor the MA50 level closely on the 4H chart.
Look for confirmation volume on any breakout above $111K.
Target the 1.5 Fib extension zone at $117K for potential exit or take-profit levels.

For long-term investors, this pattern reaffirms that the macro uptrend remains intact, and dips to support zones could be seen as opportunities to accumulate.

Final Thoughts: A Rare Pattern May Be Playing Out

Bitcoin’s current price structure is forming what could be one of the clearest technical repeat patterns we’ve seen since early 2024. The combination of the 4H Golden Cross, matching RSI fractals, and identical percentage moves from the low is rare and significant.

If price holds the MA50 and breaks past immediate resistance, this could spark a rapid move to $117,000, validating the Fibonacci extension target and putting BTC back on track for testing the all-time highs above $120,000 later this year.

Traders should remain alert. These setups don’t come often, and when they do, they tend to move fast.