Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Drops Below $97K as ETF Outflows Hit Feb Lows

Bitcoin Faces Mounting Bearish Pressure as Institutional Demand Weakens — Can a Rebound Still Happen?

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to struggle as it trades inside a persistent downtrend, unable to reclaim key psychological levels following October’s sharp sell-off. With institutional appetite shrinking, ETF outflows rising, and U.S. investor demand showing clear weakness, bearish pressure has intensified across the market. Yet despite these challenges, long-term holders (LTHs) remain remarkably resilient—offering a potential pathway toward a short-term recovery if certain conditions hold.

Bitcoin Drops Below $97,000 as Downtrend Strengthens

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $96,918, reflecting a 13.54% monthly decline. Its price action has remained confined within a descending channel for weeks, signaling a structurally bearish market with lower highs and lower lows defining the trend.

The deeper question now facing investors is straightforward: Why is Bitcoin struggling to maintain an uptrend, and is a recovery still possible before year-end?

Institutional Appetite Has Collapsed — And the Data Shows It

One of the strongest explanations for Bitcoin’s bearish momentum is the sharp decline in institutional demand, particularly from the United States. Several critical indicators highlight this shift.

Negative Coinbase Premium Shows Weak U.S. Buyer Demand

For two consecutive weeks, the Coinbase Premium Index has stayed in negative territory—hitting -0.077 at press time.

A negative premium means:

BTC prices on Coinbase are lower than on global exchanges
U.S. investors are selling more aggressively or
They are simply not buying

This is especially concerning because Coinbase is the leading entry point for institutional U.S. capital.

Historically, sustained negative readings on this metric have aligned with periods of intense downside pressure. Even though the U.S. government shutdown ended recently, the premium has not recovered, signaling that institutional participants are still avoiding risk.

Coinbase Premium Gap Drops Sharply, Confirms Selling Pressure

The Coinbase Premium Gap, a volatility-adjusted measure of U.S. buying strength, has also declined for two straight weeks—falling to -77, one of its weakest readings in months.

This wide negative gap indicates:

A strong divergence between U.S. and global demand
Higher selling activity coming specifically from American investors
A sustained reduction in institutional interest

With two major U.S.-based indicators flashing red, the bearish narrative grows increasingly difficult to ignore.

ETF Outflows Intensify, Reaching February Lows

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market, often seen as Bitcoin’s institutional backbone, has also experienced significant weakness.

ETF Netflows have fallen to -$866.7 million, hitting levels last seen in February.

This indicates that:

Funds are selling BTC rather than accumulating
Capital is exiting regulated investment vehicles
Institutions are offloading exposure, adding pressure to spot markets

Historically, Bitcoin required more than two months to recover after the last large wave of ETF outflows—suggesting additional downside risk if the pattern repeats.

Long-Term Holders Are the Only Source of Strength Right Now

Amid the wave of institutional selling, one group of investors stands firmly bullish: long-term holders (LTHs).

These holders play a critical role at market bottoms, often acting as the final line of defense before a trend reversal.

Realized Profits from LTHs Are Declining

Recent data shows LTH realized profits have dropped from 12,000 BTC to 8,000 BTC—a decline of 4,000 BTC.

Bitcoin Price Drops Over 3% Amid Macro Uncertainty and Institutional Outflows – What’s Next for BTC?

This means:

Fewer long-term holders are selling
They are confident enough to hold through volatility
They see no incentive to close positions at current prices

Sell-Side Risk Ratio Falls to Monthly Low

The LTH Sell-Side Risk Ratio has fallen to 0.0047, signaling extremely low selling pressure from experienced investors.

Historically, when this ratio declines:

LTHs begin accumulating or holding tightly
Price floors stabilize
Market bottoms often form shortly after

This metric alone does not guarantee a rebound, but it significantly limits the severity of downtrends.

Exchange Activity Suggests Growing Dip-Buying Behavior

While institutions are reducing exposure, retail and mid-sized investors appear to be quietly accumulating.

Over the past five days, Bitcoin Spot Netflow has remained negative. At press time, netflow stood at -$448 million, indicating heavy outflows from exchanges.

Negative netflow typically signals:

Investors withdrawing BTC for long-term storage
Reduced selling pressure in spot markets
Increased accumulation behavior among holders

When combined with strong LTH conviction, declining exchange balances create supply pressure that often fuels short-term relief rallies.

Bitcoin’s Near-Term Outlook: Caution With a Chance of Rebound

Given current conditions, Bitcoin faces a delicate balance between bearish institutional flows and strong long-term holder support.

Bearish Scenario: BTC Could Fall to $93,482

If institutional outflows persist and U.S. investor appetite continues weakening, Bitcoin may extend its decline toward the next support level near $93,482.

Key risks include:

Continued ETF redemptions
Persistent negative Coinbase Premium
Macro uncertainty affecting risk assets

Under prolonged pressure, Bitcoin could remain inside its descending channel for several more weeks.

Bullish Scenario: A Short-Term Recovery Is Still Possible

Despite bearish institutional trends, Bitcoin is not without catalysts for a short-term bounce. A potential recovery could be triggered if:

LTHs continue holding with minimal selling
Exchange outflows remain high
Retail buyers keep absorbing supply
ETFs stabilize across the next several sessions

If these conditions align, Bitcoin could reclaim $99,690—the upper boundary of its short-term resistance zone. A breakout above that level would open the door to a retest of $103,000, an area that historically attracts renewed momentum.

Final Outlook: Structural Weakness, But the Foundation for a Rebound Is Building

Bitcoin’s current struggle is driven primarily by a lack of institutional demand and heavy U.S. market selling pressure. ETF outflows reinforce this bearish narrative, and short-term volatility remains likely.

However:

Long-term holders are showing strong conviction
Exchange balances continue to decline
Profit-taking remains low
Investors appear to be accumulating on dips

This combination often precedes relief rallies, even within broader downtrends.

For now, Bitcoin remains vulnerable—but not without hope. If the growing strength of long-term holders aligns with a stabilization in institutional flows, BTC could see a recovery sooner than many expect.

Todor Tsonev publication: "Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Drops Below $97K as ETF Outflows Hit Feb Lows — Rebound Possible?" was written for 24crypto.news