Bitcoin Price Outlook: BTC Faces Resistance at $111.7K as Downtrend Eyes $105.5K

Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart Analysis for the Week

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) posted notable movement in the first week of July 2025, with the daily chart offering important technical insights. The flagship cryptocurrency rebounded sharply off a key Mean Support level at $104,900, pushing past the Mean Resistance at $110,300 before encountering significant resistance zones that could shape the trend for the upcoming days.

With volatility still high across global markets and risk assets recalibrating, BTC's price action suggests a potentially bearish continuation, though bulls may yet reclaim momentum if key levels hold.

Technical Overview: Rebound Met with Resistance

Bitcoin began the week with renewed bullish momentum, climbing from $104,900 and successfully challenging the $110,300 Mean Resistance. This movement reflected short-term buyer interest and a technical recovery, but the broader price structure still shows a market under pressure from macroeconomic headwinds and profit-taking.

Key Weekly Price Levels:

Level TypePrice (USD)

Mean Support (initial)	$104,900
Mean Resistance	$110,300
Key Support (target)	$105,500
Key Resistance	$111,700
Outer Rally Resistance	$114,500

As of the weekend, Bitcoin hovers just below $110,000, showing signs of stalling as it attempts to break through increasingly firm resistance zones.

Bearish Setup Forming: Is $105.5K the Next Target?

Despite the early-week rally, Bitcoin now appears vulnerable to a pullback toward $105,500, a secondary Mean Support level identified by historical confluence zones and Fibonacci retracements.

Key Bearish Indicators:

Rejection at $110,300 resistance suggests weak momentum above this level.
Lower high structure on the daily chart implies limited buyer confidence.
Bearish divergence on the RSI and MACD on multiple timeframes shows slowing bullish momentum.

Should BTC fail to hold above $108,000–$108,500, the probability of a decline to $105,500 increases, especially if selling volume intensifies.

Resistance Cluster Ahead: $111.7K to $114.5K

The zone between $111,700 and $114,500 represents a critical test for Bitcoin bulls. This area includes:

Key Resistance at $111,700 – A level with multiple historical rejection points.
Outer Coin Rally Resistance at $114,500 – A psychological and technical barrier formed by March and April swing highs.

Dogecoin Price Outlook: Analyst Eyes Range Low for Bullish Reversal Setup

If bulls can drive BTC above this resistance cluster on strong volume, the technical bias may shift back toward bullish continuation, potentially opening room for a run toward $118,000–$120,000.

However, failure to breach this zone could trigger further selling pressure, especially from short-term traders seeking liquidity.

Indicators Snapshot: Mixed Signals on the Daily Chart

IndicatorCurrent StatusImplication

Relative Strength Index (RSI)	~51 (neutral)	Momentum indecision
MACD	Bearish crossover forming	Potential short-term pullback
Bollinger Bands	Price near upper band	Overextension, reversal likely
Volume	Declining after bounce	Weak conviction on rally
Support Strength	Strong at $105,500	Buying interest expected there

The indicators suggest caution, with mixed to bearish short-term momentum despite Bitcoin remaining within a mid-term consolidation structure.

Strategic Scenarios for Traders This Week

Bullish Continuation Scenario:

BTC consolidates above $108,000 and reclaims $110,300.
A breakout above $111,700 could trigger bullish interest, targeting $114,500.
Confirmation requires volume expansion and RSI > 60.

Bearish Breakdown Scenario:

BTC fails to hold $108K, leading to a drop toward $105,500.
Breach of this level could open the door to $102,300–$100,000.
Key confirmation: MACD bearish divergence + rejection candles below $110K.

Neutral Range-Bound Scenario:

BTC trades between $107,000 and $111,000 in a tight consolidation.
Traders should prepare for a volatility breakout once volume returns.

Market Context: Macro Pressures Still in Play

Bitcoin’s technical picture is further complicated by global macroeconomic factors:

Ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions continue to spook global risk markets.
Renewed uncertainty over central bank policy in the U.S. and EU is pressuring investor sentiment.
Institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs have slowed, signaling temporary caution.

While Bitcoin remains a favored hedge against inflation and fiat devaluation, short-term sentiment remains mixed as traders weigh macro signals.

️ Weekly Outlook: Levels to Watch

Watch LevelImportance

$105,500	Critical support; possible bounce zone
$108,000–$108,500	Immediate support; short-term pivot
$110,300	Near-term resistance; needs breakout
$111,700	Major resistance to watch
$114,500	Reversal trigger or profit target

Conclusion: Bitcoin at a Crossroads Between Correction and Breakout

Bitcoin's price action during the week of July 4 shows a market in flux. After rebounding from support at $104,900 and tapping resistance at $110,300, BTC now faces a technical crossroads. The downside target of $105,500 remains active unless bulls can reclaim and sustain above $111,700.

While the longer-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic due to fundamental adoption trends, the short-term bias is leaning bearish unless confirmed breakouts occur.

Traders should monitor volume closely, manage risk around key support zones, and remain alert to macro news events that could tip the balance in either direction.