Bitcoin Tests Critical 1W MA50 Support: Is a New Bear Cycle Here and Are Stocks Next?

Bitcoin Tests Key Weekly Support as Market Signals Possible Bear Cycle — Could Stocks Be Next?

Bitcoin’s recent price behavior suggests that the world’s largest cryptocurrency may be entering a new bear cycle, with technical indicators aligning closely with historical market patterns. The 1-week moving average (MA50) — represented by the blue trendline — is now a crucial level that could determine Bitcoin’s medium-term direction.

Bitcoin Tests the 1W MA50 — A Decisive Moment

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading near the 1-week MA50 level, a trendline that historically separates bullish continuation phases from the early stages of bear markets. The price action currently hovers around $107,500, suggesting that buyers and sellers are locked in a critical battle.

A weekly candle close below this moving average would be a strong bearish signal, potentially triggering a deeper correction toward the 1W MA100 in the weeks ahead. Such a move could echo the structure observed during the 2021 market peak, when Bitcoin lost momentum, retested its mid-cycle support, and then fell sharply over subsequent months.

Diverging Paths: Bitcoin Falls as Stocks Hit Record Highs

What’s particularly striking in the current setup is the divergence between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. While Bitcoin has been correcting, the S&P 500 has been setting new all-time highs, a dynamic often seen near the end of bull market cycles.

This divergence is not unusual — in 2021, Bitcoin topped roughly seven weeks before the stock market did. The pattern appears to be repeating: investors are again rotating profits from crypto into equities as they chase late-cycle stock market gains.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the weekly chart also mirrors this behavior. Both in 2021 and 2025, the RSI has formed lower highs, indicating weakening momentum even as prices attempt to recover — a classic sign of exhaustion within long-term uptrends.

If the 4-Year Cycle Holds True...

The current price structure reinforces the 4-Year Cycle Theory, which proposes that Bitcoin tends to peak, correct, and bottom roughly every four years — typically around major halving events. So far, 2025 appears to be following this roadmap almost perfectly.

If the timing mirrors the 2021 cycle, the stock market could peak around the week of November 24, just as Bitcoin did seven weeks prior. Afterward, Bitcoin could enter a prolonged consolidation phase between the 1W MA50 and 1W MA100, lasting several months before a steeper decline potentially toward the 1M MA100.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin and Stocks?

The key question now is whether Bitcoin has already topped — and if so, whether the stock market will follow suit soon. If Bitcoin closes below its 1-week MA50, a more pronounced downtrend could emerge, leading to:

• A retest of long-term moving averages,

• Multi-month sideways accumulation,

• And potentially a final capitulation phase similar to 2022.

Conversely, if Bitcoin manages to hold above its 1-week MA50 and reclaim resistance levels near $112,000–$115,000, it could delay the onset of a broader bear cycle.

Bottom Line:

Bitcoin stands at a pivotal crossroads. The technical setup, macro divergence with equities, and cyclical rhythm all hint that the market could be entering the early stages of a downtrend. If history rhymes — as it often does in crypto — the coming weeks may not only confirm Bitcoin’s top but could also signal that stocks are next in line to follow.

Milcho Atanasov publication: "Bitcoin Tests Critical 1W MA50 Support: Is a New Bear Cycle Here and Are Stocks Next?" was written for 24crypto.news

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