BTC Market Analysis Jan 10: Bitcoin Open Interest Hits 2022 Lows as Traders Await Supreme Court Verdict on Global Tariffs

Bitcoin Positions for Measured Rally Toward $100,000 as Low Open Interest Signals Caution Ahead of Major Macro Events

As January 2026 progresses toward its close, Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of building toward a more sustainable advance, supported by deleveraged positioning and cooling volatility. The cryptocurrency trades around $90,600–$91,200 on January 10, holding steady after early-month highs near $94,800 and a subsequent pullback. This range-bound action reflects a market digesting prior gains without excessive leverage, setting up potential upside if upcoming catalysts resolve favorably.

Key Macro Catalysts Loom

Two major U.S. developments dominate the near-term outlook:

• The Supreme Court is deliberating on the legality of President Trump's sweeping global tariffs imposed under emergency powers. No ruling emerged on January 9, with the next opinion day set for January 14. A decision against the administration could trigger refunds of billions in collected duties, easing trade pressures but introducing short-term uncertainty for risk assets. Markets remain on edge, as tariffs have already influenced global supply chains and inflation dynamics.
• The latest U.S. employment data (December 2025 figures released January 9) showed modest nonfarm payroll gains of +50,000 and an unemployment rate dipping to 4.4%. However, broader labor market softness persists: job openings fell to 7.1 million in November (latest JOLTS data), pushing the vacancies-to-unemployed ratio down to 0.91—the lowest since early 2021. This indicates cooling demand for labor, potentially pressuring the Fed toward easing.

Market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool assigns only a low probability (around 13–18%) of a rate cut at the late-January FOMC meeting, reflecting caution despite weakening hiring trends. If upcoming data (including January figures in February) confirms labor market fragility, expectations could shift, favoring risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

Low Open Interest Creates Cleaner Setup

Bitcoin's 30-day futures open interest has declined to its lowest levels since 2022, per CryptoQuant data. This marks a sharp reversal from Q4 2025 peaks near $94 billion, signaling significant deleveraging and reduced "blind optimism." Historically, such resets—often following overheated leverage—precede consolidation or bullish reversals when price stabilizes.

The absence of crowded longs reduces liquidation risks during volatility spikes, creating a healthier foundation for gains. Unlike prior overheated phases, the current environment lacks panic selling from long-term holders, with measured whale trimming rather than broad distribution.

Institutional Flows and Technical Resilience

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen mixed action in early January, with net outflows totaling around $1.1 billion over recent days (partially offsetting strong early inflows). Despite temporary redemptions, cumulative inflows remain robust at over $56 billion since launch, underscoring ongoing institutional interest.

Technically, BTC holds above key supports near $89,000–$90,000 (including the converging 20- and 50-day moving averages), with buyers defending dips. A break above $95,000 could trigger short covering and target $100,000+ in the near term, especially if macro events ease downside fears.

Outlook: Caution Breeds Opportunity

The combination of subdued leverage, muted FOMO, and resilient price action positions Bitcoin favorably for a measured rally toward six figures by early February—if labor data continues softening and tariff uncertainty resolves without major shocks. This setup contrasts with overheated prior cycles, offering a cleaner path for upside.

However, volatility could spike around the Supreme Court decision and FOMC. Traders should watch ETF flows, open interest trends, and labor indicators closely. Cryptocurrency markets remain highly sensitive to macro shifts—robust risk management is essential in this transitional phase of 2026.

Robert Petrov publication: "BTC Market Analysis Jan 10: Bitcoin Open Interest Hits 2022 Lows as Traders Await Supreme Court Verdict on Global Tariffs" was written for 24crypto.news

---

News from today

---

Related news

Gold Surges Past $4,300 as Market Cap Hits $30 Trillion Amid Global Turmoil

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Drops Below $97K as ETF Outflows Hit Feb Lows — Rebound Possible?

ETH Exchange Supply Hits 2016 Lows as Staking Participation Blows Past 30%

Bitcoin ETF Outflow Streak Hits $40.5M; Crypto Coalition Fights Big Banks for Open Banking Data Rights

More news with author: Robert Petrov