Is HBAR Dead? One Early Backer Says No, Defends $1 Target Amid Supply Gut

Analyst Doubles Down on $1 HBAR Thesis Despite Brutal Token Dilution Pressure

An early backer of Hedera Hashgraph is maintaining a strongly bullish long-term outlook for HBAR, targeting $1 per token despite what he describes as “terrible” recent price action driven by aggressive token unlocks and supply dilution.

The analyst, who has been involved with the project since its early stages, argues that the current weakness is a temporary side effect of scheduled unlocks rather than a reflection of weakening fundamentals. He believes the network’s growing real-world adoption, enterprise partnerships, and technical progress will ultimately outweigh the short-term selling pressure from new supply entering circulation.

Recent Price Action and Token Dilution Impact

HBAR has faced significant downward pressure in recent months, with the token trading well below its previous highs. The primary driver has been the steady release of tokens from unlocking schedules, which has increased circulating supply and created consistent sell pressure from early investors and team allocations.

This dilution effect has been particularly noticeable during periods when broader market sentiment was already cautious. While many altcoins have struggled in the current environment, HBAR’s price decline has been amplified by the mechanical selling from unlocks. The analyst acknowledges the difficulty this has created for holders but maintains that the long-term value proposition remains intact.

Why the $1 Thesis Remains in Place

The $1 price target is based on a combination of network utility, adoption metrics, and market positioning. Hedera has continued to expand its enterprise use cases, with major corporations leveraging the network for supply chain tracking, tokenized assets, and decentralized identity solutions. The analyst highlights the network’s high transaction throughput, low fees, and carbon-negative status as competitive advantages that are not fully priced in at current levels.

He also points to the growing number of active addresses, increasing developer activity, and strategic partnerships as evidence that real usage is accelerating. In his view, once the unlock schedule begins to taper and selling pressure eases, the improved fundamentals should drive a significant re-rating of the token.

The $1 target represents a substantial increase from current prices but is seen as achievable within the current market cycle if adoption continues to scale. The analyst emphasizes that this is not a short-term prediction but a longer-horizon view based on the network’s potential to capture meaningful market share in enterprise blockchain solutions.

Risks and Short-Term Outlook

Hedera (HBAR) Tokenomics: 2026 Guide to Supply, Staking, & ETFs

The main risk in the near term remains continued token dilution. Until the unlock schedule moderates, HBAR may face ongoing pressure, especially if broader market sentiment stays weak. The analyst advises patience and suggests that investors focus on the long-term picture rather than short-term price fluctuations.

He also notes that the current bearish price action has created what he views as an attractive entry point for those with a multi-year horizon. However, he cautions that timing the exact bottom is difficult and that dollar-cost averaging may be a more prudent strategy given the volatility.

Technical indicators currently show HBAR in a downtrend, with the price trading below key moving averages. A sustained break above major resistance levels would be needed to shift the short-term structure bullish. Until then, the focus remains on whether the network can continue delivering real-world progress despite the challenging price environment.

What This Means for HBAR Investors

The analyst’s decision to double down on the $1 thesis amid heavy dilution highlights a classic divergence between short-term price action and long-term fundamentals. For investors who share this long-term conviction, the current weakness may be viewed as a period of accumulation rather than a reason to exit.

However, the path to $1 will likely require several catalysts, including:

Moderation of the token unlock schedule
Continued growth in network usage and adoption
Broader market recovery that lifts the entire crypto sector
Increased visibility and partnerships that highlight Hedera’s enterprise advantages

In the meantime, holders are encouraged to focus on the project’s development progress rather than daily price movements. The analyst believes that those who maintain conviction through the current challenging phase will be well-positioned when the market eventually recognizes the network’s growing utility.

The coming months will be important in determining whether Hedera can translate its technological strengths and enterprise adoption into sustained price appreciation. While short-term pressure from dilution remains a headwind, the long-term case for HBAR at the $1 level continues to be supported by a growing list of fundamental developments.

Investors should approach HBAR with a clear understanding of both the risks and the potential rewards. The current environment offers a test of conviction, but also an opportunity for those who believe in the project’s long-term vision.