XRP Price Bear Cycle Warning: Break Below 1W MA50 Signals Drop to $0.90 Target

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XRP Price Bear Cycle Warning: Break Below 1W MA50 Signals Drop to...

Nikolaj Krastev
8 November, 2025, 09:28
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XRP Price Breakdown: Has the Bear Cycle Begun After the Triangle Breakout?

The digital asset XRP (XRP/USD) is showing early warning signs that a new bear cycle may be underway, despite having maintained an upward channel since the March 9, 2020 market crash. As of today, XRP is trading around $2.35, reflecting fresh pressure following its recent peak investigations.

Trend Breakdown: Channel Up & Key Support Broken

XRP has been climbing within a long-term rising channel since early 2020. The pattern held well during multiple bullish cycles, yet by mid-2025 it appears to have stalled. The most striking signal: the token recently broke and closed below its weekly 50-period moving average. Historically, this kind of failure in channel support marks the onset of a deeper correction. The token’s flash-crash in late October even tested its weekly MA100 before rebounding—another classic precursor of trend exhaustion.

Fibonacci Completion: Cycle Top or Warning Flag?

Another meaningful technical event: XRP hit the 2.5× Fibonacci extension level on July 14, 2025—precisely where its prior cycle peaked in April 2021. This suggests that the current up-leg has reached its structural limit. When a major cycle target lines up so neatly with a technical extension, it often signals that momentum may shift rather than continue unabated.

Echoes of the Last Bear Phase

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Comparing the current setup to the 2021-2022 bear cycle reveals disturbing similarities:

In late November 2021, XRP closed a week below its weekly MA50—the same threshold it breached about 30 days ago now.
Weekly RSI structure and divergence patterns are mirroring those seen at that tipping-point. These parallels raise the possibility that XRP is not just correcting—it may be entering the downward phase of a full cycle.

Where Might the Bottom Be?

The last bear cycle found its low near the monthly MA100 and just under the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the prior bull leg. Using that as a guide, a potential downside target emerges near $0.90. If XRP holds that level and sees oversold conditions (for example, weekly RSI dropping below the 30 line), that could mark a viable entry point for long-term buyers.

Key Indicators to Monitor

A weekly close below the MA100 would raise the odds that a major trend reversal is underway.
The weekly RSI falling below 30 would highlight capitulation and possibly a local bottom.
If XRP breaks decisively back above the old channel or MA50, it might invalidate the bearish scenario and shift back toward a bullish regime.
Fundamental developments—such as regulatory clarity, institutional adoption or large-scale network upgrades—can also alter the outlook.

Bottom Line

While XRP’s technical structure remains intact from the multi-year rising channel, the break of key support levels and the completion of a typical cycle extension raise red flags. Unless supportive fundamentals intervene, this could be the early stage of a deeper decline toward the $0.90 region. Traders should approach with caution, define clear risk-management rules and closely watch the key signals described above.