XRP Price Stagnation: Why ETF Inflows Haven't Sparked a Rally Yet

XRP Price Stagnation Explained: Why Strong ETF Inflows Haven't Sparked a Rally Yet

XRP, the cryptocurrency associated with Ripple's cross-border payment network, has shown remarkable resilience in 2025, trading steadily around $2.02 as of December 15, 2025. Despite modest daily fluctuations—down about 1% in the last 24 hours—the token has maintained levels above key supports, even as spot XRP ETFs continue to attract significant institutional interest. This disconnect between robust ETF demand and flat price action has left many investors puzzled, especially amid headlines touting billions in potential inflows.

Analyst Zach Rector Breaks Down the 'Sell-the-News' Dynamic

In a recent appearance on the Paul Barron Podcast, prominent crypto analyst Zach Rector addressed this frustration head-on, describing the current phase as a classic "sell-the-news" period following major ETF launches. Rector emphasized that while ETF inflows signal strong long-term demand, their immediate impact on public market prices is limited due to how purchases are executed.

Most ETF buying occurs over-the-counter (OTC) rather than on open exchanges where retail trading dominates. This means institutional accumulation doesn't directly compete with spot selling pressure. In November 2025 alone, XRP ETFs saw substantial inflows—ranging from hundreds of millions in early reports to nearing $900 million cumulatively by early December—yet equivalent or greater volumes of XRP were sold on centralized exchanges as investors cashed out or rotated into stablecoins.

"When ETF inflows finally shift onto public exchanges, that's when aggressive buying kicks in and prices respond," Rector explained. Until then, exchange outflows effectively offset private ETF demand, keeping XRP in a consolidation range.

Historical Volatility Highlights XRP's Explosive Potential

Rector pointed to XRP's market cap history for context on its sensitivity to flows. In November 2024, positive sentiment drove a nearly $100 billion market cap expansion in a single month. Conversely, November 2025 saw outflows contribute to a $41 billion contraction. This asymmetry demonstrates how quickly XRP can surge when buying overwhelms selling— a scenario likely once ETF demand spills into spot markets.

The analyst remains firmly bullish on near-term supports, dismissing sharp drops below $2 as improbable without a major black swan event. Deep liquidity, passive institutional buying via ETFs, and a growing base of long-term holders provide a solid floor. XRP has consistently formed higher lows throughout 2025, with key levels at $1.60 (April), $1.77 (October), and $1.81 (November).

Large buy walls are evident below $2, including around $1.91–$1.90. A brief dip could retest $1.80, but Rector views anything lower as highly defended. "Not a chance it falls back to $1," he stated unequivocally.

Broader Outlook: Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Tailwinds

XRP's fundamentals continue to strengthen, bolstered by Ripple's expanding ecosystem, including the RLUSD stablecoin and integrations for real-world asset tokenization. Spot ETFs from issuers like Canary Capital, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton have provided regulated exposure, drawing traditional investors wary of direct crypto holdings.

As ETF assets under management grow—already locking up hundreds of millions of tokens—institutional flows could eventually absorb selling pressure, paving the way for breakouts. Analysts like Rector foresee significant upside in 2026 and beyond, with base cases around higher single digits if adoption accelerates.

For now, patience is key. XRP's stagnation reflects transitional dynamics rather than weakness. Once OTC buying transitions to exchange demand, historical patterns suggest rapid appreciation could follow. Investors should monitor exchange balances, ETF inflow trends, and volume spikes for signs of momentum shift.

In a maturing market, XRP stands out for its utility in global payments and growing institutional backing. While short-term chop persists, the setup favors bulls eyeing multi-year horizons. As always, cryptocurrency markets are volatile—conduct due diligence and consider risk tolerance before investing.

Milcho Atanasov publication: "XRP Price Stagnation: Why ETF Inflows Haven't Sparked a Rally Yet" was written for 24crypto.news

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