XRP Struggles at $3 as Ripple’s Bank Charter Decision Nears

XRP Faces Resistance at $3 as Analysts Eye Potential Breakout Before Ripple’s Bank Charter Decision

XRP Struggles to Break Above $3 Despite Strong Weekly Gains

After a brief rally over the weekend, XRP (XRP/USD) is once again battling resistance at the $3 level as of Monday, October 6. Despite the pullback, the token’s market capitalization remains up over 4% for the past seven days, standing at approximately $179.15 billion, according to the latest data from CoinMarketCap.

While not among the top weekly gainers — such as Zcash (ZEC), which soared by 140% — XRP’s weekend surge allowed it to briefly overtake BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) in total market capitalization, an impressive milestone that reflects the continued investor enthusiasm for Ripple’s ecosystem.

At its weekly peak on Sunday, October 5, XRP’s market value reached around $183.4 billion, surpassing BlackRock’s approximate $180 billion valuation, before slipping slightly lower as trading opened on Monday.

Technical Picture: XRP Consolidates Within a Symmetrical Triangle

From a technical perspective, XRP’s price action remains tightly coiled inside a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting that a major breakout could be imminent.

The upper resistance sits around $3.20, which has acted as a strong rejection zone over the past several sessions. A confirmed breakout above this threshold could open the path toward $3.50, marking a fresh multi-month high for the asset.

At the same time, XRP continues to hold above key moving averages, reinforcing a medium-term bullish bias. The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) currently stands at $2.92, while the 50-day SMA is hovering near $2.93, both providing strong support beneath the market.

Momentum Indicators Turn Positive

Perhaps the most encouraging signal for bulls is the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), which is currently positioned at 0.00739, indicating positive momentum and suggesting that buying pressure remains strong despite short-term profit-taking.

If the MACD line continues to diverge upward from the signal line, traders could see a renewed push toward the upper boundary of the consolidation pattern.

Ripple’s Fundamentals: The Bank Charter Catalyst

Beyond technicals, Ripple’s ongoing push toward regulatory integration continues to serve as one of the strongest long-term drivers for XRP’s potential upside.

In June 2025, Ripple Labs formally applied for a National Trust Bank Charter in the United States — a move designed to bring stablecoin operations and XRP-based financial products under federal oversight.

This initiative represents a significant strategic shift toward compliance and mainstream financial integration, potentially allowing Ripple to issue and manage stablecoins in partnership with regulated institutions.

The October deadline for the charter approval is now approaching rapidly, and according to several analysts, the outcome could have a major impact on XRP’s price trajectory for the rest of 2025.

Analysts: Ripple’s Charter Could Trigger a Price Surge

Market strategists have highlighted that a successful charter approval could serve as a massive confidence boost for institutional investors and traditional banks exploring blockchain solutions.

If Ripple receives approval, it would become one of the first crypto-native firms to operate as a federally chartered trust bank, giving it the ability to bridge on-chain liquidity with regulated banking products.

Such a development could spark a wave of capital inflows into XRP, as it strengthens the token’s use case within cross-border settlements, tokenized assets, and on-chain payment infrastructure.

Conversely, any delays or rejections in the charter process could lead to temporary bearish sentiment, as traders reassess the pace of XRP’s integration into U.S. financial systems.

“Ripple’s push for a bank charter is more than just a regulatory checkbox,” commented digital asset analyst Evan Greene. “It’s the foundation for long-term adoption. If approved, XRP will no longer be viewed as just a payment token — it will be part of a regulated financial ecosystem.”

Institutional Interest in XRP on the Rise

The renewed investor attention surrounding Ripple’s regulatory progress is also fueling institutional demand for XRP exposure.

Erebor Bank Opens Doors for Crypto Startups with OCC Charter and $225M Funding

Large-cap investors and fund managers have reportedly increased allocations toward XRP-based financial instruments, especially following the recent surge in blockchain partnerships across Asia — such as Ripple’s collaboration with SBI Holdings and Tobu Top Tours in Japan.

This expansion aligns with Ripple’s broader vision to position XRP as the settlement backbone of the Asian tokenized economy by 2026, integrating digital rewards, NFTs, and real-world payments into one ecosystem.

For many investors, this growing adoption narrative complements the technical bullish setup, reinforcing the case for XRP’s next leg upward once broader market conditions stabilize.

Price Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

According to technical analysts, the $3.20 resistance level remains the critical barrier preventing XRP from advancing further. A daily close above $3.20 could trigger momentum buying, potentially lifting the token toward the $3.50–$3.60 region.

On the downside, XRP has established a strong support floor between $2.85 and $2.90, bolstered by the convergence of the 20-day and 50-day SMAs. If prices were to fall below this range, short-term sentiment could turn bearish, exposing XRP to a potential correction toward $2.70.

However, the current consolidation structure and MACD uptrend suggest that any pullbacks are likely to be met with strong buying interest.

Short-Term Scenario: Sideways Trading Before the Next Breakout

Traders expect sideways consolidation in the near term, as XRP remains trapped within the symmetrical triangle that has defined its price action since late September.

Typically, such formations precede a large directional move, and with XRP trading close to the apex of the pattern, a breakout could materialize within the next 7–10 days.

If momentum aligns with positive regulatory news from Ripple, the breakout scenario above $3.20 could unfold swiftly, potentially setting a new local high for Q4.

Ripple’s Broader Ecosystem Momentum

Ripple’s growing network of partnerships across banking, travel, and payments continues to expand XRP’s real-world utility, further differentiating it from speculative altcoins.

The recent collaboration between Ripple and SBI Ripple Asia to launch a reward and NFT-based payment platform in Japan underscores this strategic vision. The initiative — set to go live by mid-2026 — aims to tokenize loyalty rewards, travel vouchers, and NFT souvenirs using the XRP Ledger (XRPL).

This ecosystem expansion, combined with Ripple’s regulatory efforts, suggests that XRP is gradually transitioning from a transactional crypto to a core fintech infrastructure asset.

Market Sentiment: Confidence Amid Consolidation

Despite the current price consolidation, on-chain data and investor sentiment remain largely positive. XRP’s trading volumes have held steady, reflecting consistent market participation and accumulation behavior among medium-term holders.

Additionally, the recent surge in total crypto market capitalization — now above $4.3 trillion — indicates that the broader environment remains supportive of risk-on assets like XRP, particularly as investors diversify beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

“XRP has quietly become one of the most fundamentally sound assets in this cycle,” noted analyst Laura Shin. “Its network upgrades, regulatory progress, and expanding ecosystem give it a strong position heading into 2026.”

Conclusion: XRP’s Critical Moment Ahead

As XRP trades near the $3 mark, the next few weeks could prove decisive for its long-term trajectory.

With a technical breakout setup, supportive moving averages, and a potential regulatory milestone on the horizon, market watchers are preparing for heightened volatility — and possibly the next major rally.

Whether XRP can sustain momentum will likely depend on Ripple’s ability to secure its National Trust Bank Charter, as well as broader crypto market stability heading into the year’s final quarter.

If the charter is approved and XRP breaks past $3.20 resistance, analysts believe the path to $3.50 and beyond could open swiftly — setting the stage for renewed institutional inflows and long-term market confidence.